Surprise
How far a release or an earnings report came in from what was expected.
Formula
Surprise = Actual − Consensus Earnings surprise % = (Actual EPS ÷ Estimate − 1) × 100, when the estimate is positive
How to read it
Positive means above expectations — whether that is good depends on the release: a higher-than-expected inflation print is a negative surprise for most assets.
How to use it
Markets move on the surprise, not the level: a strong number that everyone expected moves little.
Limitations
No free source publishes economists' consensus, so economic surprises are often missing; an earnings surprise needs both an estimate and an actual.
In Kereon
Calendar · Economic. Actual minus consensus, computed here when both exist.
Investing · Expectations. Recomputed from the estimate and the actual — never read from the vendor's surprise column — beside the stock's move over the next one and five sessions.
Also called: earnings surprise, beat, miss, actual vs consensus.